Miami-Dade: A Potential Epicenter for Trump’s Immigration Policies
Miami-Dade County may become a focal point for President-elect Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. As he prepares to declare a national emergency to facilitate the mass deportation of undocumented migrants, Florida could experience significant upheaval in the coming year.
According to immigration experts, approximately 5% of Florida’s population—around 1.1 million residents—are living without legal status. The extent of Trump’s actions will be crucial in determining the impact of deportations on communities, families, workplaces, and the state’s economy.
Individuals currently residing and working in Florida under programs such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS), asylum, or parole for Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, and Venezuelan (CHNV) migrants could be at risk. Additionally, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which has enabled thousands of children born to undocumented parents to build new lives in Florida, may also be eliminated shortly after Trump takes office in January.
Potential Consequences for Florida
“Considering these programs collectively, we face significant challenges here in Florida,” stated Juan Carlos Gomez, a professor and immigration expert at Florida International University College of Law. “What will be the economic consequences? And what about the broader effects on individuals and families? Many are feeling fearful right now,” he added.
Despite Miami-Dade County having a nearly 70% Hispanic population and voting overwhelmingly for Trump in the recent election—where he won by 11 percentage points over Democrat Kamala Harris—it could still become ground zero for his immigration policies. “It seems many believed, ‘This doesn’t apply to me,’” Gomez remarked. “We’ll soon find out.”
Trump has argued that mass deportations would reduce crime and create more job opportunities for U.S.-born citizens. He confirmed plans to declare undocumented immigration a national emergency and deploy the military for deportation efforts.
A report from the American Immigration Council, a Washington, D.C.-based research and advocacy organization, estimated that deporting the approximately 13.3 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. would cost taxpayers at least $315 billion. Nearly half of these individuals reside in Florida, Texas, and California. The report also noted that every American taxpayer would bear the financial burden of mass deportations, which would further strain the labor market.
Florida’s Recent Legislative Changes
Florida has already witnessed a glimpse of the potential fallout from Trump’s deportation plan. Last year, Governor Ron DeSantis enacted a law penalizing employers who hire undocumented workers and prohibiting those without legal status from obtaining driver’s licenses. While DeSantis has expressed support for legal immigration, the new law has led to a significant exodus of immigrant workers, resulting in labor shortages across various industries, including agriculture, construction, and tourism.
State Leaders’ Responses
Florida’s new Republican legislative leaders have largely deferred questions about the implications of deportation to the federal government. “Any immigration policy that comes from the federal government is for them to decide,” stated House Speaker Daniel Perez, R-Miami. Senate President Ben Albritton, R-Wauchula, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that immigration is a federal issue.
Florida is one of several states that collect over $1 billion in taxes from undocumented immigrants, a revenue stream that could vanish with mass deportations. A report from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy revealed that an estimated 747,000 undocumented immigrants in Florida contributed more than $1.8 billion in state and local taxes in 2022. Nationwide, undocumented workers contribute nearly $100 billion in taxes, surpassing the cost of government services they receive.
Impact on Homeowners and Families
The American Immigration Council’s study indicated that in 2022, 39% of undocumented immigrant households owned their homes, suggesting that Trump’s deportation plans could displace approximately 1.6 million homeowners. Additionally, many undocumented immigrants live with U.S. citizens, meaning that around four million mixed-status families could be affected.
However, the potential for voluntary departures may mitigate some of the impacts of deportation. The council projected that 20% of the 13.3 million individuals targeted might choose to “self-deport,” a concept previously suggested by Republican Mitt Romney during a primary debate in Florida in 2012.
Trump has pledged to initiate mass deportations immediately upon taking office in January. “On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation program in American history to remove criminals from our communities,” he declared during a rally at Madison Square Garden near the end of the presidential race. “I will rescue every city and town that has been invaded and conquered, and we will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail, then kick them the hell out of our country as fast as possible.”
In Florida, undocumented immigrants pay a higher percentage of their income in taxes compared to wealthier residents. Due to the state’s 6% sales tax, which disproportionately affects lower-income individuals, those working illegally contribute an average of 7.9% of their income in state and local taxes, while the top 1% of earners pay only 2.7%, according to the institute’s findings.