After Iowa Poll Shows Trump Trailing Harris, Pollster J. Ann Selzer Responds to Trump’s Attacks
Former President Donald Trump labeled Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer one of his “enemies” after her recent poll for the Des Moines Register/Mediacom revealed him trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by three points, 47% to 44%, in a state he previously won by wide margins. While other Iowa polls showed Trump leading, Selzer’s findings drew significant attention given her strong reputation for accuracy in Iowa.
Trump reacted to the poll results on Truth Social, accusing Selzer of bias and claiming that all other polls showed him comfortably ahead. At a Pennsylvania rally, he remarked, “One of my enemies just puts out a poll—I’m three down. They just announced a fake poll.”
Trump’s campaign released a memo calling Selzer’s poll an “outlier” and cited Emerson College polling, which showed him leading Harris by 10 points.
In response, Selzer addressed Trump’s remarks on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, acknowledging that the result was “a shock” even to her. “I’ve had time for this to sink in because no one, including me, would’ve thought Iowa could go for Kamala Harris,” she said. When asked directly about Trump’s criticisms, Selzer defended her methodology, which she calls “polling forward,” designed to predict future voting behavior without relying on assumptions from past elections.
Unlike other polling organizations that adjust their data based on historical turnout or exit polls, Selzer explained, “I don’t make any assumptions like that… It’s a cleaner way to forecast a future electorate, which nobody knows.” She noted that her approach hasn’t changed from the methodology used in 2016 and 2020, which predicted Trump winning Iowa.