Kamala Harris has achieved her largest lead over Donald Trump to date, according to a recent poll.
Polling Results
Latest Figures
A poll conducted by Leger from July 26 to July 28 reveals that when third-party candidates are considered, Harris leads Trump by 7 points. Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds 48 percent support, while Trump has 41 percent.
Third-Party Candidate Impact
Only 5 percent of likely voters indicated support for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Since Leger’s previous poll in June, third-party support has shifted towards the main political parties, with Democrats gaining 4 points and Republicans gaining 3 points.
Decrease in Alternative Candidate Support
The number of voters willing to support a candidate other than Harris or Trump has decreased, dropping from 12 percent in June to just 5 percent in the latest poll.
Head-to-Head Matchup
In a direct comparison, Harris maintains a lead over Trump, with 49 percent of likely voters supporting her versus 46 percent for Trump. This represents a 4-point increase in Harris’ lead since the June poll.
Polling Methodology
The July poll surveyed 1,002 adults aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
Comparison with Other Polls
Recent Polls Overview
Recent surveys have shown a close race between Trump and Harris. A New York Times/Siena College poll published last week indicated Trump leading Harris by 1 point in a direct matchup, a virtual tie following Trump’s 6-point lead over Biden in June.
Influence of Third-Party Candidates
When third-party candidates are included, Harris’ lead increases, attracting 44 percent of likely voters to Trump’s 43 percent.
Aggregate Poll Results
Aggregate polls from The Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics show Trump leading Harris by 1 to 2 points, a narrower margin compared to Biden before his withdrawal.
Electoral College vs. Popular Vote
Nate Silver’s Analysis
Election analyst Nate Silver suggests that while Harris is more likely to win the popular vote, Trump has a higher chance of winning the Electoral College. According to Silver’s model, Trump has a 61.3 percent chance of securing the Electoral College, while Harris stands at 38.1 percent. In contrast, Harris has a 53.5 percent chance of winning the popular vote, with Trump at 46.5 percent.
Model Explanation
Silver explains that his model starts with a snapshot of the current race based on state and national polls, emphasizing state polls due to their critical importance in the Electoral College.
Silver gained recognition for accurately predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.