Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, currently holds a lead over former President Donald Trump in three major national polling aggregators. This comes two weeks after President Joe Biden’s historic decision to exit the race and endorse Harris, boosting her support within the Democratic Party.
Polling Overview
FiveThirtyEight’s Polling Data
According to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling aggregator, Harris leads Trump by 1.6 percentage points, securing 45.3% compared to Trump’s 43.7%. This marks the largest lead for Harris among the three aggregators.
Silver Bulletin Forecast
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin presidential forecast shows Harris with a narrower margin, leading Trump with 45.5% to his 44.1%. Harris first took the lead on July 31 by 0.2% and has gradually widened the gap.
Race to the WH Analysis
The Race to the WH polling aggregator shows the smallest lead for Harris, with her holding a slim 0.2% advantage over Trump, at 47.3% to 47.1%. Including third-party candidates, Harris leads with 44.7%, followed by Trump at 43.7%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.7%, and Cornel West at 0.7%.
Contrasting Polls
New York Times and Other Aggregators
Despite these leads, three other national aggregate polls indicate a slight edge for Trump. The New York Times shows Trump ahead by 1 point, at 48% to Harris’ 47%. When third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, both Harris and Trump are tied at 44%.
The Hill and RealClearPolitics
The Hill’s aggregation of 97 polls gives Trump a 1.1 percentage point lead, with 47.6% to Harris’ 46.5%. RealClearPolitics similarly shows Trump leading by 0.8%, at 47.7% to Harris’ 46.9%.
Electoral College and Battleground States
Electoral Vote Dynamics
The presidential election ultimately hinges on Electoral College votes, with candidates needing 270 to secure the presidency. National aggregate polls may not fully capture state-specific dynamics crucial for electoral victories.
Battleground State Polls
Individual polls of key battleground states, which carry significant electoral weight, also show a tightly contested race between Harris and Trump, underscoring the unpredictable nature of the election.
Conclusion The 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is shaping up to be intensely competitive, with polling averages fluctuating as new data emerges. The final outcome will depend heavily on state-specific victories and Electoral College dynamics, making this election one of the most closely watched in recent history.