Final Des Moines Register Poll Reveals Surprising Shift in Iowa: Harris Leads Trump
The last Des Moines Register poll before Election Day indicates a remarkable turnaround in Iowa, with Vice President Kamala Harris now ahead of former President Trump. Trump had previously won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020.
Harris holds a narrow three-point lead, which falls within the poll’s 3.4-point margin of error. This marks a significant shift from September, when she trailed Trump by four points, and contrasts sharply with the double-digit lead Trump had over Joe Biden in June.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” remarked pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
The poll suggests that Harris’s surge is largely driven by support from older women and independent voters. She leads among women aged 65 and older by more than a two-to-one margin, while Trump maintains an advantage among Iowans aged 35 to 54. Harris continues to perform well with voters under 35 and those aged 55 and older.
Democratic leaders expressed that the poll results align with what they are hearing from constituents. Iowa House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst stated, “We are hearing from women, Republicans, Independents, and Democrats who are saying enough is enough. They are sick and tired of politicians interfering in their doctor’s offices and are looking for candidates who will genuinely fight for their freedoms. This issue is real and relevant, and the fact that Vice President Harris, along with candidates for the Iowa House, are addressing the same rights and freedoms shows that this is what Iowans want.”
In contrast, Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kauffman pointed to a new Emerson College Poll, which shows Trump still leading comfortably, as a more accurate reflection of the race. “The Des Moines Register poll is a clear outlier. Emerson College, released today, aligns more closely with the actual Iowa electorate and offers greater transparency in its methodology.”
The Trump campaign echoed this sentiment, citing the Emerson College poll as a more reliable snapshot of the Iowa landscape.
In 2020, the final Des Moines Register Iowa Poll indicated Trump had an eight-point lead over Biden, and he ultimately won the state by nine points.